Picks - Final Regular Season Total

Didn't make picks this week.
FINAL TOTAL - 87-41-3
67.97%
Beat that "EXPERTS"

W16 Monday Night

Den 17 @ SD(-9.5) 27

Mock Draft Thoughts - Tuna Becomes Mahi

1st Mock had Dallas trading up for McFadden. But 2 things have happened:
1-The Tuna is in MIA, can't see Jerry giving him so much ammunition
2-SF has won a few games, so Jerry doesn't have to sweat the Patsies landing Young Mc

MIA is also in fantastic Salary Cap shape-48 players signed & $25.56mill to play with.
So Tuna can rebuild quickly. Some key FAs this year:
WR Randy Moss/LB Lance Briggs/OLB Karlos Dansby
RB Julius Jones/Jamal Lewis/Michael Turner (GB & Tennessee wanted him as an RFA)
S Bob Sanders/Ken Hamlin/Gibril Wilson/Eugene Wilson/Gary Baxter
DE Jared Allen/DE Justin Smith/DT A. Haynesworth/LB-DE T. Suggs/NT Corey Williams
WR Pat Crayton/Bernard Berrian/J. Porter/D. Henderson
OG A. Faneca/L. Allen/R. Brown/OT Flozell Adams
CB A. Samuel/Asomugha/Trufant/Brian Kelly
TE Dallas Clark/LJ Smith
QB PHILLIP RIVERS - interestingly, he reached enough incentives to void his contract
the rest of the QB crop is atrocious (Grossman/Culpepper/J. McCown/Redman)
Where does Tuna find the Vet QB he likes to roll with, to steward the O? RFA Derek Anderson?
A trade with TB for Garcia or Chris Simms?

Top FAs will be faced with the ultimate conundrum - take the $$$ or take the Belichick/SBowl pill for less?

Here's the Full-List of Team Cap Shape

Team	Signed Players	2008 cap room
1. Tennessee	39	$40.85 million
2. San Diego	44	$33.03 million
3. Jacksonville	43	$32.69 million
4. Buffalo	49	$32.05 million
5. New Orleans	39	$31.69 million
6. Cincinnati	48	$31.45 million
7. San Francisco	48	$30.91 million
8. Cleveland	42	$30.31 million
9. Arizona	34	$30.27 million
10.N.Y. Jets	45	$27.72 million
11.Oakland	40	$25.98 million
12.Tampa Bay	48	$25.90 million
13.Miami	48	$25.56 million
14.N.Y. Giants	49	$24.47 million
15.Detroit	42	$23.50 million
16.Houston	43	$22.91 million
17.Dallas	40	$20.61 million
18.Kansas City	44	$20.27 million
19.Chicago	52	$19.80 million
20.Pittsburgh	43	$18.61 million
21.Green Bay	48	$18.37 million
22.Philadelphia	49	$17.17 million
23.Denver	49	$16.77 million
24.Minnesota	49	$14.88 million
25.New England	41	$10.93 million
26.St. Louis	45	$9.61 million
27.Seattle	44	$9.55 million
28.Indianapolis	48	$8.49 million
29.Carolina	35	$6.05 million
30.Atlanta	52	$5.79 million
31.Baltimore	42	$5.00 million
32.Washington	45	-$20.72 million

12-0!!! on Sunday Day Games - Sun. Night Pick

Wash 13 @ Minn(-6) 24

12-0 so far this week
***3-0 ON HOMEDOG UPSET PICKS***
Overall - 86-41-3
68%
***45 GAMES OVER .500/50%***

Week 16

Cleve 21 @ Cinci(+3.5) 24 -homedog upset
GB 20 @ Chic(+8.5) 24 - homedog upset
Hou 17 @ Indy(-7) 27
KC(+6) 14 @ Det 17
NYG(-3) 17 @ Buff 12
Oak 10 @ JAX(-13.5) 24
Phil(+3.5) 21 @ NO 24
ATL(+10.5) 21 @ AZ 28
TB 17 @ SF(+6) 18 - homedog upset
MIA(+22) 14 @ NE 35
Balt 9 @ Sea(-10) 27
NYJ(+8.5) 17 @ Tenn 20

Last Week: No Picks
Overall: 74-41-3

Thursday Game

Den 24 @ Hou (+1) 27

Week 14 Recap

10-6
Season To Date: 73-41-3
64%

Week 14

chicago(+3) 20 @ wash 17
tb (pick) 24 @ hou 23
jax (-10.5) 27 @ carolina 10
dall 30 @ det 20 (+11)
mia 16 @ buff 24 (-7)
nyg 17 @ philly 21 (-3)
oak 21 @ gb 34 (-10)
pitt 14 @ ne 28 (-10.5)
sd 23 (pick) @ tenn 20
st.lou 24 @ cinci 33 (-6)
az 20 (+7) @ sea 21
minn 24 @ sf 17 (+9)
cleve 37 (-3.5) @ nyj 20
den 16 @ kc 13 (+7)
indy 27 (-9.5) @ balt 17
no 28 (-4.5) @ atl 12

season-to-date: 63-35-3

Week 13 - Thursday Night Game

GB (+7) 27 @ Dallas 25

2008 NFL MOCK DRAFT 1.0 - Week 13

1. DALLAS (via trade with Miami) 
Needs: DB/OG/WR/RB/LB
RB Darren McFadden - Arkansas
Miami has so many
needs, it makes too much sense not to trade down. In this scenario, Miami would get Dallas' 1st 
round picks at 24 & 29, plus Dallas' 2nd rounder, and their 2009 1st round pick. Added with the 2008 2nd round pick SD ponied up for Chris Chambers, the Fins could restock the pond with 6 of the first 64 picks. Plus, Miami would be nuts to keep the pick, pass on
McFadden and then have to face him twice a year. Then again, this is the Dolphins.
Jerry Jones needs another ring. In order to have a shot, he MUST keep McFadden away from New England. And with Adrian Peterson already shredding the NFC, Dallas must pre-empt a trade-up by conference
title stalkers, such as the Giants, Bears or Packers. Dallas can trade Julius Jones to recoup a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
2. NE (from SF)
Needs: DB/LB/RB
OT Jake Long - Michigan
This is another trade-down scenario, most likely with a team desperate for one of the top QBs. Can't see Carolina or Baltimore,
they're both high enough to grab a top QB + they have too many holes to give up multiple picks.
Minnesota or Chicago are possible, but it's doubtful they'd pull the trigger...although they should.
NE needs a LB and a DB, but would they take one so early? Default to Brady's blind-side. 
3. Atlanta
Needs: QB/WR/OL/DE/S
QB Brian Brohm - Louisville
The only hiccup here is if Petrino is already axed. 
4. Oakland
Needs: OL/WR/DT/OLB
DT Glenn Dorsey - LSU
Or will Al Davis take Howie Long's kid, who drops to...
5. St. Louis
Needs: DE/LB/OT/TE/WR/QB
DE Chris Long - Virginia 
Long's versatility on the DL, pass rushing technique + ability to defend against the run justifies him being considered as a top 5 pick.
6. NYJets
Needs: DL/OL/DB/QB/RB
DE Calais Campbell - Miami
Jets have no pass rush.
7. Carolina
Needs: QB/WR/TE/S/OT/LB
ILB James Laurenaitis - Ohio St.
This guy is AJ Hawk II
8. Baltimore
Needs: QB/WR/CB/OT/LB
QB Matt Ryan - BC
9. KC
Needs: OT/DB/DT/QB/RB/WR/DE
OT Sam Baker - USC
If Jared Allen defects via free-agency, KC will need a pass rusher.
10. NO
Needs: DEFENSE
CB Malcom Jenkins - Ohio St.
11. Washington
Needs: S/DE/OL/OLB/CB/WR/QB
DE Quentin Groves - Auburn
May have to go Safety here, for obvious reasons.
12. Denver
Needs: DT/WR/S
DT Sedrick Ellis - USC
They need to stop the run and they need another WR for Cutler. 
13. Buffalo
Needs: WR/DE-OLB/TE/OL/QB
WR DeSean Jackson - CAL
DE/OLB Derrick Harvey would work here, as well as OLB Dan Connor, to pair with Penn St.
pal Poluszny. Or a DB like Antoine Caison. Or Malcolm Kelly.
14. Arizona
Needs: DE/OLB/CB/OL/RB
OLB Dan Connor - Penn St.
15. NYGiants
Needs: OT/S/CB/WR/K/RB
OT Ryan Clady - Boise St.
A DB would be tempting, as would an RB, but they can get both in the next 2 rounds.
16. Philly
Needs: OL/WR/TE/DB/DE/LB
OT Gosder Cherilus - BC
17. Minny
Needs: QB/WR/OG/S/CB/TE/OT
QB Andre Woodson - Kentucky
18. Houston
Needs: CB/OLB/OL/RB/S
DB Reggie Smith - Oklahoma
He can play CB or S.
19. Detroit
Needs: CB/MLB/QB/OL/RB
CB Mike Jenkins - South Florida
20. Cincinnati
Needs: DEFENSE/TE/OL
DE/OLB Derrick Harvey - Florida
21. Tennessee
Needs: WR/MLB/DB/OL/DL
WR Limas Sweed - Texas
Too early for Sweed, who is the slowest of the top 8 WRs. But he's the biggest, and doesn't
run great routes. Which is perfect for Vince Young, who can't toss close to a good route.
22. Chicago
Needs: QB/OL/RB/LB/WR
OT Michael Oher - Ole Miss
23. San Diego
Needs: CB/DT/OL/LB/WR/QB
OT Alex Boone - Ohio St.
24. MIAMI (via draft-day trade with Dallas (from Cleveland))
Needs: OL-LB-DL-CB-QB-WR-TE 
OLB Keith Rivers - USC
25. Jacksonville
Needs: WR/DE/DB/LB/QB
WR Malcolm Kelly - Oklahoma
26. TB
Needs: WR/QB/OL/RB
WR Early Doucet - LSU
27. Seattle
Needs: RB/OG/WR/TE/DT/QB
RB Jonathon Stewart - Oregon
28. Pittsburgh
Needs: MLB/CB/WR/DE/OL
MLB Ray Maualuga - USC
They need a CB better than Taylor and Townshend, but an MLB like this doesn't
come around this late.
29. Miami (via draft-day trade with Dallas)
Needs: OL-LB-DL-CB-QB-WR-TE
CB Aqib Talib - Kansas
30. SF (From Indy)
Needs: OL/DE/WR/OLB/DB/QB
DE Vernon Gholston - Ohio St.
31. GB
Needs: CB/OT/RB/TE/OLB/DE/QB/WR
RB Steve Slaton - West Virginia

2nd Round
32. Miami: DT Frank Okam - Texas
33. SF: S Kenny Phillips - Miami
Overrated. Can hit big, but doesn't seem to read the QB well.
34. Atlanta: OT Barry Richardson - Clemson
35. Oakland: WR James Hardy - Indiana
36. St. Louis: CB Antoine Cason - Arizona
Falls out of 1st b/c of low 40 time, but a 2nd round shutdown corner steal.
37. NYJets: OT Jeff Otah - Pitt
38. Carolina: WR Adarius Bowman - Oklahoma St.
39. Baltimore: CB Jack Ikegwuonu - Wisconsin
40. KC: CB DeJuan Tribble - BC
41. NO: LB Ali Highsmith - LSU
42. Wash: WR Andre Caldwell - Florida
May go higher if he runs a 4.2
43. Denver: LB Xavier Adibi - Virginia Tech
44. Buffalo: TE Fred Davis - USC
45. Arizona: RB Felix Jones - Arkansas
46. NYG: RB Ray Rice - Rutgers
47. Philly: TE John Carlson - Notre Dame
48. Minny: WR DJ Hall - Alabama
49. Atlanta (from Hou): DE Lawrence Jackson - USC
50. Detroit: CB Terrell Thomas - USC
51. Cinci: DT Kentwan Balmer - North Carolina
52. Tenn: CB Tracy Porter - Indiana
53. Chicago: QB Chase Daniel - Missouri
Born leader, which hasn't been seen since before the new millenium in the Bear's backfield. 
Actually, since Jim "Rozelle" McMahon. However, he's only 6' (read: Grossman height) and
he's a Junior (so he might not declare), so they might have to opt for the taller Erik Ainge.
54. Miami (from SD): OT Chris Williams - Vanderbilt
55. Cleveland: DE Tommy Blake - TCU
56. Jax: DE/LB Shawn Crable - Michigan
57. TB: OT Tony Hills - Texas
58. Seattle: OG Eric Young - Tennesee
59. Pitt: OG Will Arnold - LSU
60. Miami (from Dallas): TE Martellus Bennett - Texas A&M
61. Indy: LB Phillip Wheeler - Georgia Tech
62. GB: CB Dwight Lowery - San Jose St.
63. NE: RB Chris Johnson - ECU

WEEK 12

13-3 
season: 63-34-3

week 12 sunday

jax(-8) 28 buff 7
chi(-1.5)20 den 17
hou(+3.5)26 cleve 23
nyg 21 minn(+7.5) 14
car(+2.5)24 no 23
kc 20 oak (+5) 17
sea(-3) 30 st. lou 24
ten(-1.5) 20 cinci 17
tb(-3) 27 wash 21
az 24 sf (+10.5) 17
sd(-8.5) 24 balt 13
ne 35 philly (+24) 13
pitt 24 mia (+16.5) 12

thanksgiving game 2

dall 28 (-14.5)
nyjets 10

thanksgiving game 3

indy 24 (-12.5)
atl 10

thanksgiving

last week: 10-5-1
season - 50-31-3
thanksgiving game 1
GB 21 (-3)
DET 16

Week 11 early games: results

8-1-1
48-27-3
nailed the exact jax-sd score
very close on gb-carolina

week 11

down in flames last week - 3-10-1
season = 40-26-2 = 61%
az(+3) 28 @ cinci 26
cleve (-3) 30 @ balt 25
kc (+15) 13 @ indy 27
nyg (-2.5) 27 @ det 24
sd 17 @ jax (-3) 24
mia 10 @ philly (-9.5) 24
oak (+4.5) 23 @ minny 22
car 13 @ gb (-9.5) 32
tb (-3) 20 @ atl 14
no 27 @ hou (-1.5) 30
pitt (-9.5) 27 @ nyjets 17
chic 17 @ sea (-5.5) 24
st. lou 17 @ sf (+3) 20
wash 13 @ dall (-11) 24
ne 31 @ buff (+16.5) 17
ten (+2.5) 17 @ den 13

Week 10

ATL @ CAR (-4)
Formula has Carolina by 5, but Carolina's QB woes are a major concern.
CAR 24
ATL 19

BUFF @ MIA (+3)
Everyone in MIA thins this is the one; actually, that it's the only shot at a win.
Formula laughs, giving FinsFans the finger.
BUFF 27
MIA 14

CLEVE @ PITT (-9.5)
Doesn't seem like this should be the biggest blowout of the week, but Formula
says so.
PITT 38
CLEVE 10

DEN @ KC (-3)
LJ out. Henry probably out. Formula calls this an 18 point spread.
KC 24
DEN 20

JAX @ TENN (-4)
With Garrard possibly back at QB, this matchup would seem about even,
right? Wrong, according to the Formula. Very, very wrong.
TENN 23
JAX 13

MINN @ GB (-6)
Hmmm. Formula says GB by 14. This is the 1st time the Formula is
going against Adrian Peterson (Minn is 3-0-1 so far). I don't like it
but the Formula is master.
GB 30
Minn 16

PHIL @ WASH (-3)
Skins have been a wreck lately. Campbell is a terrible QB; Moss may not play.
LJ Smith is back for DMac. Woo-hoo!!!
WASH 23
PHIL 17

ST. LOU @ NO (-10.5)
Bush is questionable. The Rams are all doubtful.
NO 35
STL 24

CINCI @ BALT (-4)
Another one where the Formula seems off the rails - Ravens big?
They just got hammered by the Steelers. Their DBs are in ruins.
They can't throw the ball. They're 1-7 Against the Spread.
Oh well. I'll understand if you're off
the mark here. But prove yourself, Formula, and
your name will officially be changed to "Major Yardstick", and on
your way to "THE GRAIL".
BALT 27
CINCI 20

CHI @ OAK (+3.5)
Home Dog Alert!!! I think the Raiders take this one, but Formula 
calls Bears by a touch. Welcome back, Tommie Harris.
CHI 20
OAK 13

DALL @ NYG (+2.5)
Damn, first time for the Formula - a tie. A tie? Dallas is 1/4 a point better.
If it really ends in a tie, holy crap. There have been only 16 ties in 
NFL history, and only 3 in the last 17 years. The most recent? 
Pitt-ATL 34-34 in 2002...on November 10. In fact, the past 4
occurred in November.
Screw the Ravens-Bengals, you get this right you call yourself
whatever you want (regardless, it's calling a Giants cover).
DALL 24
NYG 24     OT

DET @ AZ (-1.5)
Boldin's back. Zona's got a shot here.
DET 21
AZ 20

INDY @ SD (+3.5)
Jammer is out at CB for SD. Not good. But Indy's got it worse -
Harrison hobbled, Clark concussed, Gonzo gone. Drained from
Superbowl 41.5.
I 27
SD 23

SF @ SEA (-9.5)
Can Alexander play? Can the Hawks finally win on a Monday Night
vs. the Niners (0-2).
SEA 31
SF 10

CORRECTION

37-16-1
69.8%

11-3!!!

This thing is for real.
11-3 for the week. And it's calling true spreads and over/unders, like Pittsburgh killing Baltimore.
This can be translated to Fantasy Football, too.
In 4 weeks - 36-16-1
69.23%

Week 9

Det 24
Oak 20
Lions -3

Tenn 20
Carolina 10
TT -4

Buff 18
Cinci 17
Buff +1

TB 21
AZ 14
TB - 3.5

GB 23
KC 17
GB +2.5

JAX 20
NO 13
JAX +3.5

SD 24
Minn 20
Minn +7

Sea 31
Cleve 23
Sea +1.5

Atl 17
SF 11
Atl -3

Wash 24
NYJ 10
Wash -3.5

Oak 23
Hou 21
Hou +3

Indy 27
NE 26
Indy +6

Dall 28
Philly 24
Dall -3

Pitt 30
Balt 17
Pitt -9

Week 8 Recap

Formula went 7-6. Straight Up Underdog Moneyline picks (Buffalo, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Green Bay) were a healthy 3-1. Straight Up was 11-2.
Season (3 weeks) = 26-13-1 (.666 - nice number for Halloween week)

Week 8

Houston at San Diego -9
The game is OFF on the widget, but covers.com has a few lines posted at SD giving 9. The wildfire situation throws a wrench in the Formula. I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston cover.
SD 28
Hou 17

Cleveland at St. Louis +3
It's a hard task to go 0-8. This has to be the spot. Jackson is back. Bulger is back. Um, Orlando Pace isn't.
Cleve 30
St.Lou 26

Detroit at Chicago -5
The Formula has this pretty close. Soldier Field + the Trend puts Chicago right around the number.
Chic 27
Det 21

Indy at Carolina +6.5
Unless it's a trap game.
Indy 31
Carolina 24

Miami & NYGiants in London (NYG -9.5)
The Fins are brutal.
NYG 34
MIA 20

Oak at Tennessee -7.5
This line is gross.
Tenny 23
Oak 13

Philly at Minny +1
Another tight Formula play. If McNabb can get an air attack buzzing then it'll make the Formula moot. Trend is with Philly, too. Metrodome and Chester Taylor hurting (more Adrian Peterson) tips it here. 
Minny 20
Philly 17

Pitt at Cinci +3.5
Cinci was strong after the bye in 06, and they looked good last week. However, the Formula has Pitt as a marginal favorite. 
Pitt 23
Cinci 18

Buff at NYJets -3
Formula has the Bills winning small.
Buff 21
NYJ 20

JAX at TB -4.5
I don't like betting against Garcia, but the Formula shows JAX as the favorite. Of course, the trick is assessing the hit JAX takes with Garrard out.
JAX 17
TB 14

NO at SF +3
Alex Smith returns at QB for SF. Is that a good thing? Momentum is with the Aints. The Formula might be speaking jibberish here.
NO 23
SF 21

Washington at NE -16.5
Has a team ever gone undefeated against the spread? Washington, at 4-2 with a stout defense, is +1150 on the moneyline to win straight-up.
NE 31
Wash 17

GB at Denver -3.5
Favre + the Formula on Monday night.
GB 23
Den 20

Recap
Cleve -3
Chic -5
Indy -6.5
NYG -9.5
Tenn -7.5
Minn +1
Pitt -3.5
Buff +3
JAX +4.5
SF +3
Wash +16.5
GB +3.5

TeNNessee

wasn't a push. They won & covered as a dog. So I went 8-5-1.

4 Pm Games

2-2-1.
7-3-2 for the afternoon.

TeNNessee

yeah

1 PM Games

5-1-1, the push being Tenessee.

Holy Grail

I am testing out a new formula for football picks, one that takes into account over 25 statistical categories, as well as
a few other factors. Last week I went 11-2 and won a local bar's football pool. So far, in the early games, the formula is 6-1. 

NFL Week 7 2007 - Picks Against the Spread

Arizona +9
Buffalo +3
NY Giants -9
Tennessee +2
TB +2.5
KC +3
NE -17
Minnesota +10
Atlanta +8
NY Jets +6.5
Seattle -8
Pittsburgh -4.5
Philadelphia -6
Jacksonville +3.5